Give it Time and Reloading Supplies Will Come Down in Price a Bit

[COSteve]

Now that Biden is going and the new administration is focused on ending conflicts I believe that the shortages in reloading supplies will start to dissipate and as with all products as demand goes down, so will pressure to keep prices high. I think it's going to be a year, year and a half for the conflicts to end completely and prices to fall off but I believe that they will eventually.

Who knows, two to two and a half years from now the component suppliers may find themselves awash in product at prices that they can't sell at and then sales will start to pop up. No guarantee it will happen or when but I've watched this cycle go on for over 25 years and it happens over and over again.

I have tons of components on hand I bought at discounted prices because this has happened before. It's part of the capitalist cycle. As there are shortages, the prices rise causing more and more retailers to chase product which they pay a higher price for and expect to make a profit on. Then the production catches up with and often exceeds demand as many paid high prices and have components and many just refused to pay higher prices.

Suppliers see their sales falling as demand weakens. This goes on for a while until suppliers are forced to lower prices to generate revenue, even if they're selling at a tiny or negative profit, they need cash flow so they're forced to discount the inventory to move it. As demand still lags behind supply, more and more suppliers must cut prices to move their inventory. It's called capitalism.

That's why I stock up heavy when the sales are on like I did back in 2018-19 when the oversupply was high and then wait out the rise until demand once again drops and eventually the price goes down as the suppliers are forced to move inventory.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not convinced that the prices will fall back to pre-covid levels or anything like that. There's been a whole lot of inflation that will dampen reductions. I'm just saying that some of the current prices are based on supply being much less than demand and that naturally increases prices.

With luck, as the supply picks up and is ideally higher the new demand level (where ever that is) the pressure on price will soften and competition will again have an effect on pricing. I'd love for XM193 pulled bullets to go back to the .006¢ each I bought 30,000 for way back when again (yes, that's 6 tenth of a cent each) but it's not going to happen. Will TiteGroup return to a 4lb keg for $54? Not likely. Primers for $26/K not likely either.

I'm hoping for 'reasonable' pricing based on actual supplier costs, not the jacked up, price gouging that's part of the pricing today. What are your thoughts on this?

[Ysabel Kid]

I hope so!

(You logic is sound)

[Ray Newman]

I am cautiously optomistic, but will not hold my breath waiting for componets to become readily availabe or at a reduced price.

[Bronco]

Still have a bunch of IMR 4895 bought for $7.95/lb. Been planning ahead for a long long time

[COSteve]

Still have a bunch of IMR 4895 bought for $7.95/lb. Been planning ahead for a long long time

Sounds like me. Buy cheap and stack it deep. I had a 'moment' where I saw component prices falling in 2018 and 2019 and when they hit bottom I bought, and bought heavy. I've got enough components to last me for well past President Trump's time in office.