A Chilling Thought

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A Chilling Thought

Post by COSteve »

By Mark Mills, Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, for Prager University

Energy

We’re headed toward an exciting all-renewable energy future. Wind and solar will power the world of tomorrow. And tomorrow isn’t far off! It’s time to wake up. You’re having a dream. Here’s the reality.

Oil, natural gas, and coal provide 84% of all the world’s energy. That’s down just two percentage points from twenty years ago. And oil still powers nearly 97% of all global transportation.

Contrary to headlines claiming that we’re rapidly transitioning away from fossil fuels, it's just not happening. Two decades and five trillion dollars of governments “investing” in green energy and we’ve barely moved the needle.

This was supposed to be easy. Why is it so hard?

In a word: rocks. To get the same amount of energy from solar and wind that we now get from fossil fuels, we’re going to have to massively increase mining. By more than 1,000%. This isn’t speculation. This is physics. Copper, iron ore, silicon, nickel, chromium, zinc, cobalt, lithium, graphite, and rare earth metals like neodymium. We need them all.

And then those metals and materials have to be turned into motors, turbine blades, solar panels, batteries, and hundreds of other industrial components. That also takes lots of energy, which requires even more mining.

As a World Bank study put it, these green “technologies … are in fact significantly more material intensive” than our current energy mix. That may be the understatement of the century: raw materials account for 50-70% of the costs to manufacture both solar panels and batteries.

Until now it hasn’t really mattered that much because wind and solar still account for only a few percentage points of the global energy supply. They’re an applause line for environmentalists—not a major energy player. And it’s unlikely they will be in the foreseeable future.

But for the sake of argument, let’s say we sharply ramp up mining. Where would these new mines be located? Well, for one, China.

That country is today the single largest source for most of our critical energy materials. The United States is not only a minor player but is dependent on imports for 100% of 17 critical minerals. Do we want to give China more political and economic leverage? Europe has made itself dependent on Russia for 40% of its natural gas. How well has that worked out?

Ironically, we have all the minerals we need right here in North America. But good luck trying to get them out of the ground. Proposals to build mines in the United States and, increasingly almost everywhere else, meet fierce opposition if not outright bans. To give just one example, in 2022 the Biden Administration canceled a proposed copper and nickel mine in northern Minnesota. This was after years of delays, navigating a maze of environmental regulations.

Yes, the same environmentalists and green-leaning politicians who tout all the benefits of electric cars are the same people who make mining the materials essential to build those cars—like copper and nickel—all but impossible.

Try to square that circle. So far, we’ve only talked about today’s energy needs. What about tomorrow’s? Future energy demand will be far greater than today’s. That’s been true for the entire history of civilization. The future will not only have more people but also more innovations. And entrepreneurs have always been better at inventing new ways to use energy than to produce it.

It’s obvious but worth stating: Before the invention of automobiles, airplanes, pharmaceuticals, or computers, there was no energy needed to power them. And as more people become more prosperous, they'll want the things others already have—from better medical care to vacations to cars. In America, there are about 80 cars for every 100 citizens. In most of the world, it’s about five per hundred citizens.

Over 80% of air travel is for personal purposes. That’s two billion barrels of oil a year. Hospitals use 250% more energy per square foot than an average commercial building. And the global information infrastructure—the Cloud— already uses twice as much electricity as the entire country of Japan, the world’s third-largest economy. The massive data centers at the heart of the Cloud alone consume almost 10 times more electricity than the world’s 10 million electric cars.

E-commerce has taken off and is propelling record growth in warehouses, increasingly filled with energy-hungry robots. America’s truck freight index more than doubled in the past decade to deliver the goods to and from those warehouses. These are today’s known trends. While we can’t predict the future, we can predict there’ll be more innovation—in robotics, drones, quantum computing, biotechnology. And new industries not yet imagined.

All of it will require more energy—a lot more. Fossil fuels, nuclear energy, and yes, renewables will be required. But if you think we can get it all from wind and solar, dream on.
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Re: A Chilling Thought

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Here the governor has started the process of off shore wind farms. While doing the seismic testing whales are washing up dead on the beaches, not a peep from Green Peace! Not one environmental group has been up in arms about these dead whales.

Guy in my club has a Tesla car, his license plate is NETZERO- one day I said to him ya know that's far from true. Yes I know but the plates were my grandkids idea. These kids have these lies pounded through their skulls, as we know they are having lots of bad ideas drilled into their heads!

Let's face it, the planet warms then cools all by itself. It's been doing that long before mankind arrived and will do so long after we are gone.

Besides it's all for not when the sun burns out in 4.5 billion years!
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Re: A Chilling Thought

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My first thoughts were that colorado steve and the essay he cites is just "preaching to the choir" but there have been a few replies to recent posts re. the environment that infers that there are "co2 bad/global warming" folk here amongst us. One fellow mentioned his electric car. Is it just me hearing tom hank's voice in character as forrest gump quoting one of his momma's quips ?

https://www.levergunscommunity.org/view ... hp?t=87912

Then there have been the press releases saying that there is micro plastic pollution in antarctic sealife. If that is indeed true, then that bothers me more than co2 levels. At least we can do something about litter but think of the $$$$ in fossil fuels consumption to even make a dent.
Last edited by Ray on Wed May 10, 2023 4:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: A Chilling Thought

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Oh and I forgot to say,
There is not thing one mankind can do to stop or even slow this from happening!
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Re: A Chilling Thought

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Ray wrote: Wed May 10, 2023 3:53 pmOne fellow mentioned his electric car. Is it just me hearing tom hank's voice in character as forrest gump...
Oh, that must be me.

I have an electric car. It's our second car and perfect for suburban use. Other than tires, there's no routine maintenance, and I never take time at the gas station. When I pull up to a stop light next to a full size SUV or pick up, I'm reminded he paid as much (but likely far more) for a vehicle that costs him four times as much per mile in energy costs. The line from Gump isn't the one I'd apply to him, rather it's that by PT Barnum.

I'm not a starry eyed Greenie who thinks a wind turbine here and a solar cell there will fix the problem. I'm a mechanical engineer who took a few days of spare time and sat down with the numbers available on energy consumption and production, off the DoE web site. Renewables won't meet what we use now, and that's for the US, which is the country with the best chance of making it work. For the greener-than-thou EU it's simply unfeasible, despite what the legislature in Brussels thinks, for their population density is too high.

Fusion isn't available and may never be, and fission isn't proven for the scale and cycles required. My oldest son is a nuclear engineer and agrees.

I tell my kids their world ahead will either be much hotter or much poorer. Either way, it will be a mess.
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Re: A Chilling Thought

Post by .45colt »

KWK, How much does it cost to run Your car? How would electric cars do in a very cold winter environment ? Thank You.
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Re: A Chilling Thought

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My next smaller car for around town use will be electric only if the battery technology for electric vehicles matures dramatically.

There is research going on into battery production that doesn't require the vast amounts of rare metals and hazardous chemicals currently required. In addition, recharging time must be dramatically reduced to no more than about 15 minutes without the damage to the batteries lifespan that the current designs experience.

Plus, the batteries weight and cost will have to go down by at least an order of magnitude so that they are cost competitive. Further, the batteries must be designed to be repairable. The current designs are not and EVs are being totaled by insurance companies because of small damage to the battery pack.

One friend had minor side impact damage and the quote to repair it was for a $22,000 battery pack replacement which the insurance company claimed was more than the value of the EV so they totaled his EV and he lost a ton of money on a replacement.

Finally, the current technology results in a battery pack that once used up and replaced, must be treated as hazardous waste with an expensive process to safely dispose of.

So, if the technology advances sufficiently in all of these areas, EVs will become a real viable option for everyday transportation. If not, they will likely be relegated to use only for short trips around cities.







And, of course, there is the 'small' problem of electrical energy production and distribution so that it's available to power the millions of EVs envisioned by the Eco Nazis who are heck bent on destroying the world economy to serve their radical environmental religion.
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Re: A Chilling Thought

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.45colt wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 10:29 am How much does it cost to run Your car? How would electric cars do in a very cold winter environment ?
The fall off in cold (I'm in central Illinois) is impressive. Watching the meter, I reckon I average over the course of the year a little under 5 miles per kWh stored, certainly at least 4.5 mi/kWh. Charging looses at least 10% of the juice metered. Coal juice (which is rapidly rising in price here) is 15 c/kWh at the margin (including those fees and taxes proportioned to the meter). That works out to a little under 4 cents per mile. Friends with large trucks barely get 20 mpg around town, or about 20 c/mi at the current prices.

The hard "eco" tires last a long time in city driving, so won't affect the calculation. There's insurance. I've read in journals this is rising very rapidly since it's turning out the current EV designs are very expensive to repair in many crashes. I've seen that in my own situation, with rates rising faster than on our other car (but that car is several years older). Comparing my rates, the EV premium might be as high as 3 c/mi. However, I avoid the twice annual engine servicing the conventional car requires. Call it a 2 c/mi premium. With energy costs, it's still much cheaper than a conventional car.

Only time will tell about the other big variable, namely longevity. I've owned this car a year, and I can't really detect a fall off in capacity so far. I do baby the battery, knowing it will not be economical to replace it. Our previous electric (trashed when another driver ran a red light) was showing noticeable decay per year, but that was a different battery chemistry.

On the whole, I believe the claims that ownership costs are turning in the EV's favor. EV's aren't ready for prime time, in my opinion, but they are great as a town car for the suburban house owner.

edit: I forgot to answer directly one of your questions. In the winter here, the mileage falls off to more like 3.5 or even 3 on colder days. That assumes you get by using the seat heaters. Turning on the cabin heater will really lower the range. This isn't a problem for us around town (and this car doesn't leave town).
Last edited by KWK on Thu May 11, 2023 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: A Chilling Thought

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COSteve wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 10:57 am One friend had minor side impact damage and the quote to repair it was for a $22,000 battery pack replacement which the insurance company claimed was more than the value of the EV so they totaled his EV and he lost a ton of money on a replacement.
That's probably an extreme example (my battery pack is about $7,000 new), but I've read in journals it is indeed an added cost of EV ownership. When a driver ran a red and trashed my first electric, I was surprised the payout was slightly more than I'd paid for the (used) car 5 years earlier. I got lucky. The car dearth from the pandemic had pushed up the value of the car. Add on the (now expired) tax credit, and buying another electric was an easy choice for me.

I can agree with most of your points. We should know more in the coming decade. Due to massive tax subsidies and a huge hydropower system, Norway is selling over 80% EVs already. So far the grid isn't cracking, but there are many old cars on the road. I'm certain it won't work out as well as the Greenies try to palm it off as.

For town driving, I do not want to return to a gasoline powered car. The electric is superior on all points but one. For the highway, I will stick with gasoline. My hybrid sedan has delivered 57 mpg (as measured at the pump over its first 18 months), and it's smoother than a conventional car. In short, I won't be returning to a conventional car (although I wouldn't mind owning an old Porsche 356).
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Re: A Chilling Thought

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The other bad thing is when these lithium batteries are damaged in an accident or just over heat ( F150s) on the lot ya cant put the fire out with water!
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Re: A Chilling Thought

Post by stretch »

Oil will never go away - there's too much money to be made by the very wealthy shareholders
and commodity futures wheeler-dealers.

It costs roughly $12 to $15 per barrel to extract crude in Iraq and put it in a tanker.
At $85 per barrel, that's $60 per barrel of pure profit per barrel. They pump 4.1 MILLION barrels
a day in Iraq. That's over $240 MILLION PER DAY of PURE PROFIT for the oil companies.
(And if anyone interferes with that production, the USAF will bomb them into oblivion -
that's the security force!) Oil is not going to go away anytime soon........

Note also how electric rates are doubling around the country in the last few years - electric
heat will remain expensive - efficient heat pumps or not.

http://graphics.wsj.com/oil-barrel-breakdown/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/265 ... s-per-day/

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Re: A Chilling Thought

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GunnyMack wrote: Wed May 10, 2023 4:02 pm Oh and I forgot to say,
There is not thing one mankind can do to stop or even slow this from happening!
here's the dirty big stinking secret elephant >
globalTempAndCo2_last600MillionYears.png
.
CO2 and temperature is not linked. On the graph the warmist believers post with temperature and co2 plotted together, supposedly to PROVE that atmospheric carbon drives the global temperature, guess what? The plot line for co2 is to the right of the temp line, it happens AFTER temp trends change. CO2 cannot possibly drive the climate from the rear view mirror . . .
Screenshot 2023-05-11 192416-climate.png
.
.https://principia-scientific.org/did-na ... te-change/
.
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Re: A Chilling Thought

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Ray wrote: Wed May 10, 2023 3:53 pm My first thoughts were that colorado steve and the essay he cites is just "preaching to the choir" but there have been a few replies to recent posts re. the environment that infers that there are "co2 bad/global warming" folk here amongst us. One fellow mentioned his electric car. Is it just me hearing tom hank's voice in character as forrest gump quoting one of his momma's quips ?

https://www.levergunscommunity.org/view ... hp?t=87912

Then there have been the press releases saying that there is micro plastic pollution in antarctic sealife. If that is indeed true, then that bothers me more than co2 levels. At least we can do something about litter but think of the $$$$ in fossil fuels consumption to even make a dent.
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Re: A Chilling Thought

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Grizz wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 9:08 pm
GunnyMack wrote: Wed May 10, 2023 4:02 pm Oh and I forgot to say,
There is not thing one mankind can do to stop or even slow this from happening!
here's the dirty big stinking secret elephant >

globalTempAndCo2_last600MillionYears.png
.
CO2 and temperature is not linked. On the graph the warmist believers post with temperature and co2 plotted together, supposedly to PROVE that atmospheric carbon drives the global temperature, guess what? The plot line for co2 is to the right of the temp line, it happens AFTER temp trends change. CO2 cannot possibly drive the climate from the rear view mirror . . .

https://jeremyshiers.com/blog/global-te ... ion-years/
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Re: A Chilling Thought

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And what happens when the planet warms? Polar ice caps melt which in turn all that fresh water stops the Atlantic current from bringing warm tropical water northward. When that happens the planet cools, think ICE AGE.
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Re: A Chilling Thought

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GunnyMack wrote: Fri May 12, 2023 4:22 am And what happens when the planet warms? Polar ice caps melt which in turn all that fresh water stops the Atlantic current from bringing warm tropical water northward. When that happens the planet cools, think ICE AGE.
EXACTLY . . . the temperature charts look just like stock charts. on every upswing there is an offer that is not taken, and that starts the price decline. same same going the other way.

"their" problem is that climate is NOT determined by CO2, climate is steered by solar cycles and earth's long term and short term orbital cycles . . . NOT bicycles . . .

. EXACTLY NONE of the interactive cycles is used in the climate scam algorithms . . .

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Re: A Chilling Thought

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Grizz wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 9:08 pmThe plot line for co2 is to the right of the temp line, it happens AFTER temp trends change.
The problem with such a plot is CO2 and temperature are not tied in lock-step, and no climatologist claims it is.

When something raises the air temperature around the earth, many feed back mechanisms are triggered; some will strengthen the warming, some will damp it. Add some CO2, the air heats (this has been known since before the Civil War). As the air heats, it holds more water. Water is a strong "greenhouse" gas (also known since before the Civil War), which amplifies the warming. The increase in water vapor makes clouds which reduces the solar influx and also causes rain which removes some of the water vapor. And so on.

Many of these feed back mechanisms are not well understood, and some are likely yet to be discovered. The oceans are a huge variable. They are heated from below by the earth's core and from above by the air. The differential in temperature causes flows around the planet distributing the heated water. The oceans are also a big CO2 sink which when heated release CO2. A few seconds with google brings one to a discussion on this aspect. The lag you point to is not considered a surprise.

One will find breathless claims in the press every time the IPCC releases their latest guess as to the effects of CO2 emissions. The IPCC looks at various mathematical climate models from agencies and universities around the world. Each uses a different estimate of the strength of the various feed back mechanisms. This gives a big variation in the predictions from the calculations. In seeking sensational headlines, the press and our doddering President focus on the highest ones. However, it's the lower ones that seem to be closer to reality. (The first "climate model" was done in the 1890s by Arrhenius. It was rather high because it was rather simplified.)

Petit's plot, which you show, displays a big cycle. I've read that cycle hasn't been explained to everyone's satisfaction. There is some speculation that a cycle to the earth's axis has caused long cycle heating variations. The idea is that the summer of the northern land mass might be slowly moving to and fro the point of closest orbit to the sun. That heating cycle could in turn drive the CO2 releases in Petit's plot. If so, the CO2 would have been an amplifier and not the trigger. (Also, as I read it, Petit's plot is from ice core samples in a single location. The quantities measured are minute, and there are variations seen among different locations around the world.)

There's no arguing over whether CO2 will warm the planet. That was shown in the 1800s. There is plenty of room to argue over how much warming there will be and what harm that might cause. While persistent, CO2 is not the most powerful greenhouse gas. It's the effect of amplifying mechanisms, including water vapor, that can be argued over, and that debate has been running for over 125 years. It's here that the "existential threat" alarmists are fixated.
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Re: A Chilling Thought

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This video is very enlightening about climate change. Watch to the end. https://rumble.com/v2m6bae-this-is-the- ... watch.html
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Re: A Chilling Thought

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GunnyMack wrote: Fri May 12, 2023 4:22 am And what happens when the planet warms? Polar ice caps melt which in turn all that fresh water stops the Atlantic current from bringing warm tropical water northward. When that happens the planet cools, think ICE AGE.
HUMANS CANNOT CONTROL THE 100 OR SO INTERACTIVE VARIABLES THAT CONTROL THE CLIMATE.
.
Screenshot 2023-05-13 092957-CLIMATE for Thinkers.png
.
READ THE LAST PARAGRAPH . . . AGAIN . . . it appears that it is beyond the ken of politicanas
.
THERE IS NOT ONE IOTA OF QUALIFIED SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE OF CARBON DIOXIDE STEERING THE CLIMATE AT THE SCALE THAT THE CLIMATE CHANGES. THE 600 MILLION YEARS OF ICE CORE RESEARCH DOES NOT LINK CO2 WITH TEMPERATURES . . .
.
What is that bit that says the creator will hold them in derision? He must be getting a good laugh by now . . .
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Re: A Chilling Thought

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765x53 wrote: Fri May 12, 2023 8:55 pm This video is very enlightening about climate change. Watch to the end. https://rumble.com/v2m6bae-this-is-the- ... watch.html
Thanks very much for this!!! "warming yes, but from what?" Brilliant.
.
more evidence >
Screenshot 2023-05-16 113256-CLIMATE watch the cycles.png
I have posted this before, but I never tire re-reading the information from a commercial fisherman . . .
.
Screenshot 2023-05-16 112210-wang says orbital variations.png
.... and
Screenshot 2023-05-16 112338-CLIMATE science.png
....
ABSOLUTELY NONE of this information is included in ANY KNOWN climate change hypothesis . . .
.
i think the real-world evidence uncovers a deep dive into cultural insanity covering earth like ash from volcanic fallout

yes, the science is settled, but the climate-scam-religion is IGNORANT of the science because they prefer to believe lies, like 1.25 y.o. babies with their hands covering their ears while they practice their immortal screams . . .


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Re: A Chilling Thought

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I just got through reading a piece on the world debt of all the countries around the globe and it points out that China is taking over the world financially causing other countries to go deep into debt. Well it's not exactly China's fault it's the country's that borrow the money from them just like the United States, if they hadn't barrowed from them we wouldn't be in debt like that.
But anyway their showing how the world will be in financial debt to China and many countries, I believe 88 so far are already in deep financial debt and at a point where they can never recover, they have already defaulted.
My question is where did China get all this money to loan to the rest of the world or are they printing their own US dollars I just don't see how they have that much money. It seems that once the country has defaulted China goes in and mines their resources in payment for the debt.
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Re: A Chilling Thought

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Are they loaning yuan? There are articles saying that china wants yuan to be the default world trade currency. Debt is bondage, and the marxists made mincemeat of every citizen by blowing the U.S. debt out the hole in the ozone . . .

Yes, I believe they print yuan like candy wrappers, loan it to US at whatever the exchange rate is, buying bonds, short for bondage, and tighten the noose every time. There is actually only one final solution near as I can tell . . .

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Re: A Chilling Thought

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Recently, the temperatures for April of 2023 were released. The temperatures were lower over the entire planet for April 2023 than for April 1823. My takeaway is that the planet has always been changing.
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Re: A Chilling Thought

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Grizz wrote: Sat May 13, 2023 11:56 amTHE 600 MILLION YEARS OF ICE CORE RESEARCH DOES NOT LINK CO2 WITH TEMPERATURES
Ice core data only goes back 800 thousand years. Some cores suggest the CO2 leads, and in some it lags. It's not the most precise sensor.
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Re: A Chilling Thought

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Grizz wrote: Sat May 13, 2023 11:56 amREAD THE LAST PARAGRAPH
So what's he trying to say? On the one hand he claims all energy transfer at lower levels is solely by mechanical means. Then he goes and claims radiation might have an effect above 1 km. So how does he reckon that what goes on above 1 km can't affect what goes on below, when the two levels are mechanically connected?

edit: According to NASA, 12% of the energy radiated into space comes directly from the surface, so this guy's claim energy transfer near the surface is all mechanical is not correct.
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Grizz wrote: Tue May 16, 2023 2:25 pmABSOLUTELY NONE of this information is included in ANY KNOWN climate change hypothesis
As I mentioned before, the earth's tilt and orbit are thought to explain the long term swings indicated by the ice core data. I doubt any one is doing detailed climate calculations over the span of time these cycles come into play. These change little over the 150 years that modern fossil fuel burning has been done.
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Re: A Chilling Thought

Post by KWK »

765x53 wrote: Fri May 12, 2023 8:55 pm This video is very enlightening about climate change.
I'm not sure how much weight to give a single arctic temperature plot. It shows the area cooling over 5 F at the same time the last ice age was receding. One needs to look at data (if available) from around the globe to get a proper average.
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AJMD429
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Re: A Chilling Thought

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'Environmentalists' really ARE crazy - https://scitechdaily.com/stratospheric- ... te-change/
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KWK
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Re: A Chilling Thought

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AJMD429 wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 8:51 pm 'Environmentalists' really ARE crazy
It's more that they are beginning to realize the world will not abandon hydrocarbon fuels soon enough (if ever) and are looking for a way to minimize the possible damages: a quick fix.

The general idea covered in this article has been around for many years. It's been suggested that soot from burning fuels is helping form clouds which have reduced the rate of warming, for the warming is lower than many of the models forecast. As I said before, the regulating mechanisms of the atmosphere are not fully understood.
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