Math and Politics

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AJMD429
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Math and Politics

Post by AJMD429 »

A patient came in last week and we talked about the usual cholesterol and blood pressure things, planned to take off a probable skin cancer off his shoulder, and then (as happens in 90% of visits these days) he talked about how the current political situation had been an incredible stress.

Over the years it has usually been that a 'political stress' is something that a guy will say stresses him because his wife just refuses to deal with it, and doesn't want to talk about it, or 'allow' him to do whatever financial maneuverings or moving-to-the-country he thinks is advisable. Or the wife will be in and stressed because she is vaguely aware of political goings-on, but more focused on getting the kids fed, helped with their schoolwork, and is mostly stressed because she feels her husband has grown distant, or wants to flip his 401k into harder assets.

This year has been different. Women are much more aware of the sordid details of the political scene, worried about their kids growing up apathetic about voting because of the blatant fraud, and knowing their grandkids will be living in a socialist police-state with financial inflation meaning they will be paying huge and unaffordable taxes to support the government handouts of today. Men are on the same page, with perhaps more worries about external security, if they or their spouse has to work in a big city or whatever.

So that is what I expected. But this guy whipped out a spreadsheet (he's a retired cop now working part time in an accounting office, so when the spreadsheet was about 'guns' I wasn't surprised).

He is 61 years old now, and says since he got out of the military in his early twenties, has bought a firearm about every four months (131 to be exact, per his spreadsheet), and sold about one a year, either because he didn't like it, or needed the money to fund a new purchase. In some cases he turned a profit, but mostly says he about broke-even. Back when 'collectibles' like the old Colts and Winchesters were cheaper, he didn't have the money, so he was buying Remingtons and Savages and Rugers. He's not that into leverguns, but liked military stuff and bought Garands, M1A's of several flavors, and when AR's hit the market, a bunch of them. Only lately has he had the funds to buy more expensive guns, but now the 'collectibles' are still a bit out of his reach, so he tends to buy 'high-end' 1911's or AR's instead. He says his average investment per gun is $618, not counting optics or holsters or whatever.

So he's now got 82 firearms, and at $618 average, works out to $50,678. He says of his current 82, 38 are 'semiauto rifles' of some sort. So the Biden gun bill will cost him $200x38 or $7,600. That knocks his collection's value down to $43,076, so he immediately loses 15% of his lifetime investment. He's not really a 'gun guy' other than he occasionally duck hunts (says he can't bring himself to shoot a deer though...?), and he's pretty much ready to sell them if/when it becomes time to cash in his investment, but he'd wanted to wait until retirement. He asked me what I thought would happen to the 'value' of the guns in the next year or so - trying to figure out if their price will go up by $200 or more for the semiauto rifles, so if that is the case, he'll keep them and sell them after, OR if not, he will try to sell them right now.

What a crappy strategy to have to think about. I know most of us are essentially impacted by the same numbers and metrics, but for this guy it composed a significant amount of his retirement savings plan, as he's not that much into 'guns' but really just felt they were a solid investment just like real estate only easier to invest smaller amounts of money in at a time.

All I could think of to tell him was:

a) to remember that likely transferring the firearms after a few months (if the law passes) would incur a $200 fee to the buyer, so the value of the firearm in that sense may decrease. On the other hand if the number in circulation winds up being 'frozen' then that could drive UP prices as happened with full-autos.

b) to remember that likely confiscation will follow within a few months to years, so at that point there may be anything from zero compensation to owners or some nominal fee. It sounds like most of his firearms are garden-variety ones from PSA or DPMS or whoever, so if the 'buyback' amount is $500 he might not lose too much, and if it is $1,000 (which I highly doubt) he could break-even or maybe make a small profit at that point.

He just seemed to accept all the 'political' part of it, and although feeling like he is getting ripped off financially, like the pipeline workers who Biden just eliminated the jobs of, I didn't get the feeling he was looking at any sort of political involvement to stop the law from being passed. I asked if he was a member of the NRA and he said he became a lifetime member back in his 20's, but "hasn't kept up with it, other than I get the magazine, which I give to my son, 'cause he's more interested in that stuff than me..."

He folded up his spreadsheet and put it back in his pocket, and I asked him what he planned to do, and he just said, "Well, I guess I'll just wait and see, and maybe they'll waive the registration fee, so I'll have some time to sell them off before they get confiscated anyway..."

What a pathetic state of affairs. This guy's a nice guy, and at one point served in the military, so you'd think he'd be more angry at the situation, but I got the impression he's still too shocked that Biden "won" to really get a grip on things.
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magyars
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Re: Math and Politics

Post by magyars »

I just can't understand the mentality that just gives up and wilts under potential ( not even gauranteed )
Unconstitutional laws.
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Re: Math and Politics

Post by M. M. Wright »

Doc,
Sounds a lot like my situation. Maybe I have more antiques and maybe more invested but any regulation just makes me feel sick. I'm so close to the end of this life that I don't feel up to fighting any more. Yes I'm an NRA Life member and am bitterly disappointed that Trump didn't win but is what I expected.
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Re: Math and Politics

Post by AJMD429 »

Yeah, I’m afraid for too many people of our generation have just decided that it’s hopeless and there’s nothing we can do, so we are going to let the best nation in the world be destroyed and our children and grandchildren live in a literal hell on earth because we are “too tired to fight” or feel like “the system is rigged so there’s no use” or “God said it would end this way, so our role is just to watch civilization burn and rejoice in that we will survive the rapture”.

The founders of our nation who marched all winter in bare bloodied feet with no supplies against all odds (talk about a ‘rigged system’) would be disgusted at what we have become; we’ve lived like kings during the past century, and yet have every excuse under the sun as to why we can’t preserve the freedom they gave life and limb and fortune for.

At best, most gun owners just ‘stock up on stuff’ but do little or nothing to participate politically, which is the HARD part; instead they just brag about how when the storm-troopers come down their street they’ll go down in a hail of gunfire. What a wimpy approach; it’s easy to die, and we all get closer to that every day - so what if you would rather die in a blaze of futile glory than in some nursing home drooling on yourself watching Jeapordy reruns. That doesn’t help society at all, it just gives the authorities one more body to bury and one more excuse to ratchet up the gun laws. Far better to have done something REALLY useful, without wasting ammunition, by writing, calling, faxing, speaking, and meeting with legislators NOW, and perhaps accomplishing something more significant than making a blood-stain in your front yard.

May God forgive us for not cherishing and protecting the nation He helped Washington and others create for us...😕
Last edited by AJMD429 on Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Doctors for Sensible Gun Laws
"first do no harm" - gun control LAWS lead to far more deaths than 'easy access' ever could.


Want REAL change? . . . . . "Boortz/Nugent in 2012 . . . ! "
33wcfshooter
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Re: Math and Politics

Post by 33wcfshooter »

I don't usually post about politics but this one got me going. Tell this guy to just keep going like normal. This law stuff is just more of there BS. If they try to push it through i think they'll be legal battles forever, just like the pistol braces what are they going to do turn normal law abiding citizens into felons for owning things that atf said are perfectly legal. Also just think who would enforce this kind of stuff they tried this AR confiscation in Canada a couple years ago and gave up because of law enforcement saying they wouldn't enforce it (and that was in Canada with there crazy laws). These people might be in power but we still have rights i think everybody needs to remember that. A federal judge ripped up the not deporting people ex order so I think if you get the right judge the oil pipeline could be opened again too. So don't give up yet.
Last edited by 33wcfshooter on Thu Feb 04, 2021 5:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Grizz
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Re: Math and Politics

Post by Grizz »

that guy has more guns than i do, but i have always considered guns as hard assets that i will part with as part of my retirement savings. i worked hard at getting this far, and i resent the entire idea that the marxists will rob me, but, well, eso si que es :|
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Re: Math and Politics

Post by Blaine »

magyars wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 5:58 pm
I just can't understand the mentality that just gives up and wilts under potential ( not even gauranteed )
Unconstitutional laws.
Oh, please.....planning ahead isn't "wilting".
I started ahead when Obama was elected, and eschewed EBRs. My 10-22 might qualify if they get anal about it, but, I am MORE than able to fend off the hoards of marauding mulattos should they decide to storm my rural, senior community.
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Re: Math and Politics

Post by AJMD429 »

The problem isn’t really gun confiscation; that’s just the end-stage symptom of the disease. The problem is a weak citizenry - one that would tolerate a politician even uttering the phrase ‘gun registration’... :|
Doctors for Sensible Gun Laws
"first do no harm" - gun control LAWS lead to far more deaths than 'easy access' ever could.


Want REAL change? . . . . . "Boortz/Nugent in 2012 . . . ! "
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Re: Math and Politics

Post by piller »

Sadly, even here in Texas, Beta O'Rourke got enough votes to nearly unseat Ted Cruz.
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Blaine
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Re: Math and Politics

Post by Blaine »

AJMD429 wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:03 pm
The problem isn’t really gun confiscation; that’s just the end-stage symptom of the disease. The problem is a weak citizenry - one that would tolerate a politician even uttering the phrase ‘gun registration’... :|
No....they utter "Common Sense Regulations"......You know..like it's common sense not to go barefoot in the snow. :roll:
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Re: Math and Politics

Post by piller »

And the only people who commonly listen to that have no sense.
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