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Grizz
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Re: ScreenShots

Post by Grizz »

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Screenshot 2022-06-11 223426.png
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> a binary intersection † …
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Grizz
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Re: ScreenShots

Post by Grizz »

BEAR MARKET ? IDK

Hi GRIZZ,

We have officially hit a bear market in the S&P 500 Index. As of today’s close, the S&P 500 total return is down -21.3% from its highs at the start of this year, breaching the down -20% mark.
How’d we get here? Two words, in our view: stimulus and expectations.

Soon after Covid hit and the world stopped, the Fed jumped in to stabilize the foundation of our financial system (the bond market) with $4.5T of security purchases. It was followed by an additional $3.6T of US government money, first to businesses and then to the consumer directly through extra unemployment benefits, child-tax-credit payments, and checks in the mail.
Today, we find ourselves in a place where all that helpful stimulus money is unwinding. Since the start of the year, the market has been trying to find the correct expectations of the future.
So while the ignition for this drop was Friday’s inflation report (+8.6% year over year for May), the greater driving factor is still a question centered on valuations.
Let’s unpack that.
The inflation report was a little higher than officially expected (by 0.3%), and with the benefit of near-term hindsight, it seems that unspoken expectations were for inflation to come in lower. So anything at the same level, or even mildly higher, was going to set off the stock market drop we got on Friday, following through to today.
The greater reference to valuation — the value the market agrees to pay today for a company’s future earnings — is that it’s trying to find what businesses should be worth in the future, knowing that the stimulus is gone and inflation is here.
In terms of numbers, the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the S&P 500 Index is now about 16.5x, down from a peak of 23x last year. In a historical context, this is in line to above some of the historical averages: 10-year (16.9), 20-year (15.5), and 25-year (16.5).
So far, all of the fall in valuations this year have come from the drop in the “P” (prices), versus a fall in earnings expectations — the “E.” That’s because earnings estimates for this year and next are still at record highs.
Will the market continue to fall?
Anything is possible. Looking back to 1945, when bear markets occurred, 70% of the time they related to a recession, and the average return during a recession was -30%.

From here, further drops in the market depend more greatly on the “E,” as expectations for the next 12 months and for 2023 are high and likely need to come down. For context, aggregate earnings for the S&P 500 Index are expected to be +10% higher for each of the next two years. That seems inconsistent with rising costs and the related expectation of slowing growth. As a result, it’s reasonable that earnings may actually be lower than current expectations by 5%. Assuming this is about right, in our analysis, it could mean market levels would look closer to fair value if down further, by mid-single digits. Thus, the S&P 500 would come close to 30% down for the year, and in line with the average for a recession.
Will we have a recession?
It’s very possible — led by reassessment of corporate earnings while they cut their costs from higher expenses and softer demand. If that’s right, we are about two-thirds of the way through the market downturn (closer to the bottom than the top).
Could we be wrong about this? (Yes — and we sort of hope we are, to the upside.)
Evidence of better earnings growing, a quicker cooling of inflation than expected, and even ancillary events such as a true shift in Covid policy from China or a ceasefire in Russia’s war on Ukraine, can quickly shift expectations positively.
What does this mean for investors?
Diversification is often the answer to a lot of investing questions. It’s never a bad time to review your positions and your plan (or make one). When looking through your portfolio, consider the balance of holdings — higher-quality or lower-valued areas such as dividend stocks, and those in energy and healthcare can be attractive to some investors and can serve as a balance for riskier growth companies that may take longer than average to recover. In addition, depending on your personal situation and investing style, keeping funds available for a “dip buy” may also be prudent.
Volatility is higher these days, but try not to let it trigger an investment reaction. Staying the course may be the right decision as equity markets have historically provided positive returns over the long term.

Sincerely, your dear long lost friends etc. etc. etc.
WHERE'S THE VAX FOR THIS NEW MANUFACTURED CRISIS ?
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Grizz
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Re: ScreenShots

Post by Grizz »

Naomi Wolf on the 10 stages of a tyrannical takeover ... --- ...

https://articles.mercola.com/sites/arti ... eover.aspx

• • it's as serious as a world-killer asteroid

https://articles.mercola.com/sites/arti ... anism.aspx
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Grizz
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Re: ScreenShots

Post by Grizz »

SHOULD WE TRUST THE GOVERNMENT WITH OUR HEALTH ?

https://aapsonline.org/should-we-trust- ... ur-health/

• would this be an interesting poll? • nah. boring.

piller
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Re: ScreenShots

Post by piller »

I do not trust the Government with my health. I have some unusual issues, and the Government would let me die without a thought.
D. Brian Casady
Quid Llatine Dictum Sit, Altum Viditur.
Advanced is being able to do the basics while your leg is on fire---Bill Jeans
Don't ever take a fence down until you know why it was put up---Robert Frost
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AJMD429
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Re: ScreenShots

Post by AJMD429 »

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At least once a week I see somebody who has had personally, or had a family member or friend who has suffered an obvious vaccine-related side effect, yet has been told by the 'authorities' that "...there's nothing to see move along..."

Sometimes the person has had side effects that they will probably get over, but the point is still that they were told that the vaccines were tested and proven "safe and effective". The worst are the women who suffered miscarriages or strokes during pregnancy, yet were not only told by their obstetricians that the vaccines were safe and effective but they also pressured them to get the vaccines, making them feel like if they didn't get vaccinated it meant they didn't care about their baby.

It turns out that the testing was done on mice, not humans, and the pregnancies were terminated before the baby mice were born. Testing was done later on humans, and the majority of the data was mysteriously 'lost', but the data that was handed over after legal pressure and whistleblowers were brought to bear, indicated a huge number of miscarriages and side effects. One has to wonder what the data that was conveniently lost would have shown...
Doctors for Sensible Gun Laws
"first do no harm" - gun control LAWS lead to far more deaths than 'easy access' ever could.


Want REAL change? . . . . . "Boortz/Nugent in 2012 . . . ! "
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Grizz
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Re: ScreenShots

Post by Grizz »

it is interesting that since the blackout on VAERS reporting numbers, there is silence about the #killvax excess deaths, but the promotion of it down to infants is continuing as if nothing immoral or illegal has happened.

one unintended consequence of the vaers blackout is that people, some people, right thinking people quit wearing the person-obliterating self-isolating masks.

my sense is that there is a slight pause on the devil's mass casualty attack against humans, while the hyper-inflation attack gathers momentum, and the other jackboot falls . . . satanic hate against YHWH's creation is ramping up in perfect conformity to the Revelation . . .

and we live in interesting prophesied times



[yod-hey-waw-hey] = [hand-behold-nail-behold] = the formal name of the Creator who created us and owns our souls . . . Isaiah 42:8
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