POLITICS - Future History, The Fourth Turning

[Old Ironsights]

Note: I have read all of the Strauss & Howe books, from the seminal "Generations" through The Fourth Turning. They are good, easy to read books that show in bind boggling detail how History DOES repeat itself... and posits one reason why.
My personal favorite of the series was "13th Gen: Abort, Retry, Ignore, Fail" - their take on the Generational Cohort that was the first in history that people took drugs not to have... and some of the (ongoing) social consequences of the Hubris of their reluctant "parents"...

Here is a good breakdown of the Geerational Archetypes, & their places in history with links to cohort descriptions.
http://www.fourthturning.com/my_html/bo ... story.html

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http://www.campaignforliberty.com/blog/?p=121#more-121
The Fourth Turning

Dr. Paul’s post yesterday Something Big is Going On brought to mind The Fourth Turning, An American Prophecy a 1997 book by William Strauss and Neil Howe, authors of the earlier book Generations, The History of America’s Future.

Generations posits the idea that each American generation belongs to one of four specific archetypes. These archetypes acquire their specific characteristics from the social conditions they were born into, which in turn were created by the generations that came before them. The generational archetypes therefore repeat in a specific sequential pattern through history, creating cyclically similar events as time progresses. Using a generational length of approximately 20 years, the authors note that cyclical changes in social mood and attitude can be observed as each generation progresses through different stages in life (youth, adolescence, adulthood, old age). As the ‘generational constellation’ shifts with time, society changes in cyclically predictable but subtle ways. But every 80-100 years we experience a complete cycle, or what the authors call a “fourth turning.” The fourth turning is a period of crisis in which old ways are completely abandoned, new directions are chosen and new beginnings commence. According to the authors, there were three previous fourth turnings in American history: 1) The Revolutionary War, 2) The Civil War and 3) The twin crises of the Great Depression and WWII. Note that each event is spaced roughly 80 years from the last.

In their 1997 book, the authors hypothesized that the next big event would occur in the early part of our current century. Based on previous fourth turnings, they offered a glimpse of what is likely in store for the nation:

Around the year 2005 [give or take a few years], a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire. Yet this time of trouble will bring seeds of social rebirth. Americans will share a regret about recent mistakes – and a resolute new consensus about what to do. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.

The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, total war…

Yet Americans will also enter the Fourth Turning with a unique opportunity to achieve a new greatness as a people. Many despair that values that were new in the 1960s are today so entwined with social dysfunction and cultural decay that they can no longer lead anywhere positive. Through the current Unraveling era, that is probably true. But in the crucible of Crisis, that will change. As the old civic order gives way, Americans will have to craft a new one. This will require a values consensus and, to administer it, the empowerment of a strong new political regime…By the 2020’s, America could become a society that is good, by today’s standards and also one that works.

Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension.

If the authors are correct, what Dr. Paul is sensing is not just big, it is beyond big! While we remain optimistic about the future, the authors in no way predict that a positive outcome is assured. It will be up to us to create and guide history towards a successful outcome. And while it is not clear from the above passage, the authors do make it clear elsewhere in their writings that it will be the current rising generation - the generation that was so active and enthusiastic during Dr. Paul’s presidential campaign - that will be primarily responsible for realizing the future, be it positive or negative. In other words: Young people, your turn is here.

Our hope and mission at the Campaign for Liberty is that the age-old ideas of freedom, liberty and peace, so long neglected in our country, will once again be seen as new and embraced by a new generation. Together, it is our responsibility to make it so.

—

For more information on the Fourth Turning, visit the book’s official website. You might also be interested in an article/review I wrote back in May 2007 on my personal website: The Fourth Turning, Part I

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[FWiedner]

An interesting premise, and possibly even true.

Modern Americans no longer believe in freedom, modern Americans believe in Empire.

They believe that being kept like a misbehaving puppy in a box is being kept "safe", and that anythang de massa do mus' be OK.

Modern Americans really don't have any shared values, and it's highly unlikely that they'll be able to facilitate any great kumbaya which will lead to a golden age.

[Texican]

Very interesting. In a similar vein (albeit from the perspective of fiction) of possible futures, I received this email recently:

2010 Was Not A Good Year To Be President

Welcome to Toastmasters, June 13, 2033. That's right: 2033.

Today Rick Campbell, one of our senior members at age 87, is here to reminisce a bit and give us a history lesson. He says he is so old that he learned to drive an internal combustion engine car (remember those) with a manual transmission. He once owned a typewriter. He remembers when bicycles had one speed, phones had two-party lines, and cameras had something called film. As incredible as this may seem, he says that when he was young, it was common for people to smoke in restaurants and public places. He is from a different time; almost a different world.

I'm sure all of us are far too familiar with the tragic events of 2010, so Rick is not going to plow that fertile field again. Instead, he is going to give us a personal look back at the conditions which led up to that fateful year, in a speech titled "2010 Was Not A Good Year To Be President."

"2010 Was Not A Good Year To Be President"

Yes, 2010 was long ago and far away.

As we look back on history, it appears that some Presidents had an easy ride- times of growth and stability. Teddy Roosevelt, Warren G. Harding, Dwight Eisenhower, Bill Clinton come to mind. Those were good years to be President.

Others were elected just when the Republic was facing terrible crises:

Abraham Lincoln, Woodrow Wilson, Franklin Roosevelt, George W. Bush. They rose to the occasion, even though they were controversial and widely hated while in office. Not such good years to be President.

Just a few years prior, in 2008, the country began foundering. We were in the sixth year of the Iraqi Occupation, and the economy was flat. The mainstream press clearly wanted a Democrat elected.

Although we didn't know it until some years later, oil producing nations had colluded to secretly buy their own oil on the open market, driving oil prices to shocking levels above the true demand price- reaching a high of $162 a barrel in October, 2008, just before the general elections.

Their purpose was simple: to effect regime change in the United States.

And of course, the U.S. economy was already in a real estate slump and also suffering the curse of stagflation; slow growth and high inflation.

There were a million home foreclosures.

Independent truckers went under by the thousands.

Airlines failed. Airlines with names now long-forgotten: United, Delta, Northwestern, American. All now merged, of course, into the one lone U.S. carrier we love so much: Southwest.

Against this backdrop of weariness of the war on terror, and economic distress, the American people were ripe for a demagogue, and they certainly got one in Barack Hussein Obama.

He and his running mate Kathlene Sibelius inspired them with vague notions of hope and change; of a world in which diplomacy settled all international problems, of free universal health care, of abundant alternative energy, of peace and love.

It was a vision too good to resist.

The Republican nominee, a name you probably haven't heard in years anyone?
Yes, it was John McCain, an obscure Senator from Arizona had no clue how to run a national campaign, and a platform nearly as liberal as Obama's.

The selection of Condoleeza Rice as his running mate looked brilliant at first. Unfortunately, black voters viewed her as white, and women voters viewed her as one of the guys.

Even so, the McCain/Rice ticket would have won the election if it weren't for the fact that 16 percent of conservative Republicans voted for ...

Anyone remember? That's right, Bob Barr, another name that's a footnote in history.

After Obama's narrow win, thanks to recounts in Broward County, Florida, the country was positively giddy. A Democrat House, Senate, and President. At last an end to gridlock in Washington.

Camelot!

When Congress convened in January, 2009, the 44th President of the United States did something unique in history: he made good on his campaign promises.

Certainly most Americans never really thought he was serious during the campaign. But whether because of inexperience, idealism, or simply incompetence, he followed through.

In Obama's first One Hundred Days, the Congress passed his initiatives, and he signed them into law as he said he would.

He repealed the Bush tax cuts, and increased capital gains taxes.

He enacted a windfall profits tax, and instituted price controls on
gasoline and diesel fuel.

He passed universal health care, which added an additional 10 percent tax increase on all working Americans.

He signed the Immigrant Amnesty bill which created 12 million new citizens instantly, each with entitlements.

He closed the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, and summarily released all the detainees.

He repealed the Patriot Act, and cut funding for espionage, and eliminated all terrorist listening and wiretaps.

Most important, he began the complete and immediate withdrawal of all American troops from Iraq.

He ignored the advice of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who wanted to retain bases in Kuwait and Qatar. Instead, he went with the recommendation of Secretary of Defense Dennis Kucinich, and ordered all troops back to U.S. soil.

Viola! In One Hundred Days, by May of 2009, it was all done, and the vision was complete. He did exactly what he said he would do.

And so it was in the summer of 2009 that things began to unravel for Obama.

Of course, the economy needed a tax cut, not an increase, and unemployment quickly rose to 12 percent. Even attorneys and economists were put in the bread lines. Hard times!

Price controls on gasoline immediately led to shortages and gas lines.

The global cooling trend we have seen for the past 25 years first became obvious in 2009, exposing the CO2 global warming fraud.

People were justifiably angry.

Federal deficits increased massively because thousands of baby boomers, facing job loss and much higher taxes, simply gave up and took social security.

Although the superb U.S. health care system was thrown into disarray, the bright spot was the creation of the Federal Department of Health care, and the immediate hiring of 250,000 administrators, inspectors and auditors, the only job growth in any economic sector in 2009.

By February 2010, the U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq was complete. It was a very expensive undertaking.

And then in March, the gradual Shiite insurgencies from Iran turned into a true Iraqi civil war. In May, Iranian tanks crossed the border and quickly took Baghdad. Although the exact number is not know, at least 230,000 Sunni Iraqis died as we stood by.

Iran also quickly moved into undefended Kuwait.

President Obama did exactly what he said he would. He sent Secretary of State, Maria Cantwell, to Tehran to meet with Iranian President Ahmadinejad. After two weeks of high level talks, the United States agreed to allow Iran to retain Iraq and Kuwait to create stability in the middle east, with the understanding that Israel would not be disturbed.

Cantwell returned to Washington, and explained the agreement in her famous speech, in which she proudly noted that the Obama administration had finally achieved "peace in our time" in the Middle East.

So there was some surprise at the rocket attacks on Tel Aviv on August 14th.

President Obama said, "This is not the Mahmoud Ahmadinejad I knew."

The Obama administration decided it would be de-stabilizing to take sides in the conflict, and approximately 29,000 Israeli civilians died during the summer and fall.

American Jews were appalled at the inaction. Yes, in 2010 most American Jews were Democrats, but because of 2010, they are solid Republicans today.

As awkward as it was, everything might have turned out all right for the Obama administration going into the fall mid-term elections of 2010, if it hadn't been for the dirty bomb in the Port of Long Beach.

The administration had cut funding for the inspection of containers,
because they felt it showed a "lack of trust" in the international trading community.

It wasn't really a very big bomb, and thank goodness, not a real nuclear device, but nonetheless it contaminated some expensive real estate - Newport Beach, Palos Verdes Estates - and ultimately caused the death of 14,000 Americans. People were especially annoyed that Disneyland had to be closed for decontamination.

And so, in the midterm elections, Republicans regained control of both the House and Senate, and the rest is history.

The impeachment proceedings against President Obama for "failure to protect and defend" were swift and nearly unanimous. Vice President Sibelius resigned. Newly-elected Speaker of the House, J.C. Watts, became the 45th President of the United States.

But you know the rest of the story well.

Republicans finished the war on Islamic fundamentalists, largely by aiming ICBM's at Mecca and Medina.

No Democrat has been elected President since.

Republicans have held both Houses of Congress.

History of Western Civilization and Economics are now taught in all public schools, and in English only.

Marriage is defined as one man and one woman.

And there are border fences, north and south.

We old codgers remember the ancient Confucian curse: "May you live in interesting times."

Well, 2010 was an interesting year, but it was not a good year to be president."

(Far fetched? We are likely to find out if we continue to be unaware of the issues and vote with our emotions rather than be studious in our approach to electing our "public officials".)

It's like an episode of Sliders